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England · League Cup · EFL Cup

24 Sep 2025 19:00 UTC

PORT VALE vs ARSENAL

Final 0:2

Top match Arsenal won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Eberechi Eze — Arsenal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Leandro Trossard — Arsenal

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Arsenal
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 0% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 9 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 71 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 72 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 2 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 0% (Weak)
Total 2.5 0% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 11% (Weak)
9 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
40 predictions
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
57 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
31 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
49 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
57 predictions

Match overview