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England · League Cup · EFL Cup

23 Sep 2025 18:45 UTC

BURNLEY vs CARDIFF

Final 1:2

Cardiff won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Joel Colwill — Cardiff
  2. ⚽ Callum Robinson — Cardiff

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Zian Flemming — Burnley

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
37%
1X2
Burnley
90-minute result: Cardiff
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 24 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 19% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 63 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 64 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 3 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 33% (Weak)
Total 4.5 33% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
58 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
30 predictions
Total 1.5 15% (Weak)
13 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
29 predictions
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
47 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
53 predictions

Match overview