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Europe · Champions League Qualification

21 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

LARNE vs FK CRVENA ZVEZDA

Final 0:4

FK Crvena Zvezda won Last goal: FK Crvena Zvezda

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bruno Duarte (penalty) — FK Crvena Zvezda

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Vasilije Kostov — FK Crvena Zvezda
  2. ⚽ Bruno Duarte — FK Crvena Zvezda
  3. ⚽ Muhammed Cham — FK Crvena Zvezda

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
46%
1X2
FK Crvena Zvezda
90-minute result: FK Crvena Zvezda
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
82%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
64%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 35% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 20 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 120 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 119 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 7 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 86% (Strong)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Average)
88 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
65 predictions
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
91 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
56 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
101 predictions
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
110 predictions

Match overview