← Back to matches

South Korea · K League 1 · K-League 1

21 Jul 2026 10:30 UTC

ULSAN HD FC vs INCHEON UNITED

Final 1:2

Incheon United won Last goal: Incheon United

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Morgan Ferrier — Incheon United
  2. ⚽ Dong-Gyeong Lee — Ulsan HD FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Stefan Mugosa (penalty) — Incheon United

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
39%
1X2
Incheon United
90-minute result: Incheon United
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 24 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 239 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 295 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 66 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
214 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
133 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
214 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
160 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
225 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
260 predictions

Match overview