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Slovenia · Prva Liga

17 Jul 2026 18:15 UTC

NK CELJE vs MURA

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: NK Celje

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Niko Kasalo — Mura

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Svit Seslar — NK Celje
  2. ⚽ Marko Ascic — Mura
  3. ⚽ Svit Seslar (penalty) — NK Celje

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
NK Celje
90-minute result: Draw
No surprise
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
56%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 45% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 161 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 202 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 80 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
154 predictions
Both teams to score 37% (Weak)
73 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
169 predictions
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
126 predictions
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
140 predictions
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
171 predictions

Match overview