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Sweden · Allsvenskan

12 Jul 2026 14:30 UTC

GAIS vs ELFSBORG

Final 1:0

GAIS won Last goal: GAIS

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Robert Frosti Thorkelsson — GAIS

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Elfsborg
90-minute result: GAIS
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 27 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 234 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 315 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
228 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
186 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
252 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
175 predictions
Total 3.5 36% (Weak)
92 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
272 predictions

Match overview