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Chile · Cup · Cup Grp. G

11 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

PALESTINO vs DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ

Final 3:2

Palestino won Last goal: Deportes Santa Cruz

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bryan Carrasco (penalty) — Palestino

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Diego Arias — Deportes Santa Cruz
  2. ⚽ Jonathan Benítez — Palestino
  3. ⚽ Nelson Da Silva — Palestino
  4. ⚽ Hugo Herrera — Deportes Santa Cruz
  5. 🟥 Marcelo Eggel (straight red) — Palestino

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Deportes Santa Cruz
90-minute result: Palestino
Solid call
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 8 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 94 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 92 completed matches.

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 100% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 39% (Weak)
67 predictions
Both teams to score 66% (Strong)
56 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
76 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
44 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
25 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
81 predictions

Match overview