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England · Premier League

24 May 2026 15:00 UTC

MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA

Final 1:2

Top match Aston Villa won Last goal: Manchester City

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Antoine Semenyo — Manchester City

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ollie Watkins — Aston Villa
  2. ⚽ Ollie Watkins · assist Ross Barkley — Aston Villa

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
44%
1X2
Manchester City
90-minute result: Aston Villa
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
41%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 57% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 97 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 368 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 359 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 71 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
278 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
203 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
304 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
190 predictions
Total 3.5 31% (Weak)
98 predictions
Total 4.5 4% (Weak)
45 predictions

Match overview