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Ukraine · Premier League

17 May 2026 11:40 UTC

KRYVBAS vs SHAKHTAR DONETSK

Final 2:3

Shakhtar Donetsk won Last goal: Kryvbas

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Lassina Traore — Shakhtar Donetsk
  2. ⚽ Prosper Obah — Shakhtar Donetsk

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Gleiker Mendoza — Kryvbas
  2. ⚽ Prosper Obah — Shakhtar Donetsk
  3. ⚽ Yaroslav Shevchenko — Kryvbas

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
56%
1X2
Shakhtar Donetsk
90-minute result: Shakhtar Donetsk
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 56 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 227 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 223 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 54 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
169 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
101 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
169 predictions
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
118 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
176 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
200 predictions

Match overview