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Germany · 3. Liga

16 May 2026 11:30 UTC

FC SCHWEINFURT vs ERZGEBIRGE AUE

Final 2:4

Erzgebirge Aue won Last goal: Erzgebirge Aue

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Sebastian Müller — FC Schweinfurt
  2. ⚽ Marcel Bär (penalty) — Erzgebirge Aue
  3. ⚽ Erik Weinhauer — Erzgebirge Aue

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Johannes Geis (penalty) — FC Schweinfurt
  2. ⚽ Marcel Bär — Erzgebirge Aue
  3. ⚽ Jannic Ehlers — Erzgebirge Aue

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
FC Schweinfurt
90-minute result: Erzgebirge Aue
No surprise
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
58%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 60 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 376 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 363 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
264 predictions
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
131 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
299 predictions
Total 2.5 38% (Weak)
158 predictions
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
247 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
311 predictions

Match overview