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Germany · 3. Liga

16 May 2026 11:30 UTC

INGOLSTADT vs WALDHOF MANNHEIM

Final 5:1

Ingolstadt won Last goal: Ingolstadt

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Yann Sturm — Ingolstadt
  2. ⚽ Marcel Costly — Ingolstadt

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Emre Gul — Ingolstadt
  2. ⚽ Terrence Boyd — Waldhof Mannheim
  3. ⚽ Yann Sturm — Ingolstadt
  4. 🟥 Lukas Fröde (straight red) — Ingolstadt
  5. ⚽ Yann Sturm — Ingolstadt

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
Ingolstadt
90-minute result: Ingolstadt
Solid call
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
56%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
25%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
8%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 100 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 376 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 363 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 73 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 55% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
264 predictions
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
232 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
299 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
205 predictions
Total 3.5 41% (Weak)
116 predictions
Total 4.5 23% (Weak)
52 predictions

Match overview