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Australia · A-League · A-League Men Playoff

16 May 2026 09:40 UTC

NEWCASTLE JETS vs SYDNEY FC

Final 1:1

Sydney FC advanced Last goal: Sydney FC

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Piero Quispe — Sydney FC
  2. ⚽ Eli Adams — Newcastle Jets

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
Sydney FC
90-minute result: Draw
Advanced: Sydney FC
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 5 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 160 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 153 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 49 past matches

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
115 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
57 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
124 predictions
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
88 predictions
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
112 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
139 predictions

Match overview