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Australia · A-League · A-League Men Playoff

15 May 2026 09:35 UTC

ADELAIDE UNITED vs AUCKLAND FC

Final 0:3

Auckland FC won Last goal: Auckland FC

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jake Girdwood-Reich — Auckland FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sam Cosgrove (penalty) — Auckland FC
  2. ⚽ Logan Rogerson — Auckland FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
37%
1X2
Adelaide United
90-minute result: Auckland FC
Off target
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 30 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 159 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 153 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
115 predictions
Both teams to score 64% (Good)
96 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
124 predictions
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
88 predictions
Total 3.5 44% (Weak)
41 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
139 predictions

Match overview