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Bulgaria · A PFG · First Professional League Relegation Group

14 May 2026 17:15 UTC

PFC LOKOMOTIV SOFIA 1929 vs BEROE

Final 1:1 Almanac Moment

Draw Last goal: PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Facundo Alarcon — Beroe

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ryan Bidounga — PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
  2. 🟥 Bojidar Katsarov (straight red) — PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
39%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
12%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 35% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 95 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 269 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 270 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 12% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 36% (Weak)
76 predictions
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
138 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
201 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
161 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
224 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
257 predictions

Match overview