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Europe · Women's Champions League · Women's Champions League Final Stage

03 May 2026 14:30 UTC

BARCELONA vs BAYERN MUNICH

Final 4:2

Barcelona won Last goal: Bayern Munich

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Salma Paralluelo — Barcelona
  2. ⚽ Linda Dallmann — Bayern Munich
  3. ⚽ Alèxia Putellas — Barcelona

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ewa Pajor — Barcelona
  2. ⚽ Alèxia Putellas — Barcelona
  3. ⚽ Pernille Harder — Bayern Munich

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
Barcelona
90-minute result: Barcelona
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
4:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 57% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 19% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 67 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 67 completed matches.

1X2 51% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
Total 4.5 63% (Good)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 15 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 93% (Strong)
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 53% (Average)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 51% (Average)
57 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
38 predictions
Total 1.5 90% (Strong)
58 predictions
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
42 predictions
Total 3.5 26% (Weak)
19 predictions
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
11 predictions

Match overview