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Europe · Women's Champions League · Women's Champions League Final Stage

02 May 2026 13:00 UTC

OL LYONNES vs ARSENAL WOMEN

Final 3:1

OL Lyonnes won Last goal: OL Lyonnes

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Wendie Renard (penalty) — OL Lyonnes
  2. ⚽ Kadidiatou Diani — OL Lyonnes

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Alessia Russo — Arsenal Women
  2. ⚽ Jule Brand — OL Lyonnes

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: OL Lyonnes
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
26%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
17%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 10% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 10 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 20% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 66 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 66 completed matches.

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 44% (Weak)
Total 4.5 62% (Good)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 17% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 22% (Weak)
9 predictions
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
37 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
57 predictions
Total 2.5 25% (Weak)
24 predictions
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
47 predictions
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
55 predictions

Match overview