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France · Ligue 1

03 May 2026 18:45 UTC

LYON vs RENNES

Final 4:2

Lyon won Last goal: Lyon

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mousa Tamari · assist Estéban Lepaul — Rennes
  2. ⚽ Roman Yaremchuk · assist Corentin Tolisso — Lyon
  3. ⚽ Corentin Tolisso (penalty) — Lyon

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Estéban Lepaul · assist Mousa Tamari — Rennes
  2. ⚽ Afonso Moreira · assist Abner Vinícius — Lyon
  3. ⚽ Endrick · assist Corentin Tolisso — Lyon

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
46%
1X2
Lyon
90-minute result: Lyon
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
8%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 288 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 278 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
203 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
98 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
233 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
158 predictions
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
193 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
238 predictions

Match overview