← Back to matches

France · Ligue 1

02 May 2026 13:00 UTC

NANTES vs MARSEILLE

Final 3:0

Top match Nantes won Last goal: Nantes

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ignatius Ganago · assist Matthis Abline — Nantes
  2. ⚽ Rémy Cabella · assist Ignatius Ganago — Nantes
  3. ⚽ Matthis Abline · assist Mohamed Kaba — Nantes

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

No surprise
29%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Nantes
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
82%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 20% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 88 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 284 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 274 completed matches.

1X2 23% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 23% (Weak)
74 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
177 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
229 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
118 predictions
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
190 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
234 predictions

Match overview