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Portugal · Liga 3 · Liga 3 Relegation Group B

02 May 2026 15:00 UTC

LUSITANO DE EVORA vs ATLETICO

Final 0:1

Atletico won Last goal: Atletico

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Caio Santana (penalty) — Atletico

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Lusitano de Evora
90-minute result: Atletico
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 93 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 280 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 278 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 51 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
202 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
141 predictions
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
195 predictions
Total 2.5 39% (Weak)
109 predictions
Total 3.5 84% (Strong)
231 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
261 predictions

Match overview