← Back to matches

Turkey · Super Lig

02 May 2026 17:00 UTC

SAMSUNSPOR vs GALATASARAY

Final 4:1

Samsunspor won Last goal: Samsunspor

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Yunus Akgün · assist Victor Osimhen — Galatasaray
  2. ⚽ Marius Mouandilmadji · assist Yalçin Kayan — Samsunspor

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Cherif Ndiaye · assist Marius Mouandilmadji — Samsunspor
  2. 🟥 Günay Güvenç (straight red) — Galatasaray
  3. ⚽ Marius Mouandilmadji · assist Yalçin Kayan — Samsunspor
  4. ⚽ Cherif Ndiaye — Samsunspor

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Underdog
54%
1X2
Samsunspor
90-minute result: Samsunspor
Nice call
53%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
72%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
61%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
87%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 75 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 278 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 276 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 59 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
203 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
153 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
222 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
124 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
204 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
245 predictions

Match overview