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South America · Copa Libertadores · Copa Libertadores Grp. B

30 Apr 2026 02:00 UTC

UNIVERSITARIO DE DEPORTES vs NACIONAL

Final 4:2

Universitario de Deportes won Last goal: Universitario de Deportes

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Maxi Gómez (penalty) — Nacional
  2. 🟥 Lucas Rodriguez (2nd yellow) — Nacional
  3. ⚽ Caín Fara — Universitario de Deportes

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Álex Valera — Universitario de Deportes
  2. ⚽ Maximiliano Silvera — Nacional
  3. ⚽ Lisandro Alzugaray — Universitario de Deportes
  4. ⚽ José Carabalí — Universitario de Deportes

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
Universitario de Deportes
90-minute result: Universitario de Deportes
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
As expected
48%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
29%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 36 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 60 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview