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Ecuador · Serie A

26 Apr 2026 18:00 UTC

CSD MACARA vs LIBERTAD

Final 3:0

CSD Macara won Last goal: CSD Macara

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Tommy Chamba — CSD Macara
  2. ⚽ Martin Tello — CSD Macara

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jose Luis Marrufo — CSD Macara

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: CSD Macara
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
12%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 99 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 280 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 238 completed matches.

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 58 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Weak)
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 12% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 29% (Weak)
73 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
108 predictions
Total 1.5 31% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
135 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
196 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
224 predictions

Match overview