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Paraguay · Primera Division · Division Profesional - Apertura

24 Apr 2026 20:45 UTC

NACIONAL vs RECOLETA

Final 2:1

Nacional won Last goal: Nacional

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Allan Wlk — Recoleta
  2. 🟥 Juan Franco (2nd yellow) — Recoleta

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Roque Santa Cruz — Nacional
  2. ⚽ Ignacio Bailone — Nacional

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Nacional
90-minute result: Nacional
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 43 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 234 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 209 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 68 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 37% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
140 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
103 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
156 predictions
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
134 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
177 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
193 predictions

Match overview