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Netherlands · Eerste Divisie

24 Apr 2026 18:00 UTC

FC DORDRECHT vs WILLEM II

Final 1:2

Willem II won Last goal: Willem II

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Thomas Verheydt (penalty) — Willem II

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nick Venema — FC Dordrecht
  2. ⚽ Calvin Twigt — Willem II

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
FC Dordrecht
90-minute result: Willem II
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 51 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 347 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 363 completed matches.

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 72 past matches

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 34% (Weak)
289 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
115 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
310 predictions
Total 2.5 41% (Weak)
122 predictions
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
211 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
277 predictions

Match overview