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Europe · Conference League · Conference League Final Stage

09 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

SHAKHTAR DONETSK vs AZ ALKMAAR

Final 3:0

Shakhtar Donetsk won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Pedrinho — Shakhtar Donetsk
  2. ⚽ Alisson Santana — Shakhtar Donetsk
  3. ⚽ Alisson Santana — Shakhtar Donetsk

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
44%
1X2
Shakhtar Donetsk
90-minute result: Shakhtar Donetsk
Lucky hit
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
13%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 52% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 33 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 140 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 137 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 61% (Good)
Both teams to score 17% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 28% (Weak)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
103 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
60 predictions
Total 1.5 26% (Weak)
34 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
68 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
100 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
118 predictions

Match overview