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Europe · Conference League · Conference League Final Stage

09 Apr 2026 16:45 UTC

RAYO VALLECANO vs AEK ATHENS

Final 3:0

Rayo Vallecano won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ilias Akhomach — Rayo Vallecano
  2. ⚽ Unai López — Rayo Vallecano

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Isi Palazón — Rayo Vallecano

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
35%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Rayo Vallecano
As expected
45%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 35 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 140 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 137 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 16 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
34 predictions
Both teams to score 38% (Weak)
77 predictions
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
103 predictions
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
69 predictions
Total 3.5 16% (Weak)
37 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
118 predictions

Match overview