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Spain · LaLiga

05 Apr 2026 14:15 UTC

VALENCIA vs CELTA VIGO

Final 2:3

Celta Vigo won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Guido Rodríguez — Valencia

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ilaix Moriba — Celta Vigo
  2. ⚽ Fer López — Celta Vigo
  3. ⚽ Williot Swedberg — Celta Vigo
  4. ⚽ Guido Rodríguez — Valencia

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
48%
1X2
Valencia
90-minute result: Celta Vigo
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
14%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 41 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 293 completed matches.

1X2 51% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 57 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 51% (Average)
217 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
143 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
215 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
166 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
243 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
275 predictions

Match overview