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International · EURO U21 Qualification · EURO U21 Qualification Grp. E

31 Mar 2026 16:30 UTC

SWEDEN U21 vs ITALY U21

Final 0:4

Italy U21 won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Luca Koleosho — Italy U21
  2. ⚽ Luca Koleosho — Italy U21

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Cher Ndour — Italy U21
  2. ⚽ Luca Lipani — Italy U21

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
56%
1X2
Italy U21
90-minute result: Italy U21
Solid call
66%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
15%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 59% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 22 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 20% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 151 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 148 completed matches.

1X2 64% (Good)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 13 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 77% (Strong)
Both teams to score 85% (Strong)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 62% (Good)
Score 15% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 64% (Good)
125 predictions
Both teams to score 72% (Strong)
81 predictions
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
120 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
72 predictions
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
107 predictions
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
128 predictions

Match overview