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International · World Cup Qualification UEFA · World Cup Qualification UEFA 2nd Round

26 Mar 2026 19:45 UTC

ITALY vs NORTHERN IRELAND

Final 2:0

Top match Italy won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sandro Tonali — Italy
  2. ⚽ Moise Kean — Italy

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
43%
1X2
Italy
90-minute result: Italy
As expected
45%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
59%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 70% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 23 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 168 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 144 completed matches.

1X2 65% (Strong)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 12 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 33% (Weak)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 65% (Strong)
121 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
74 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
129 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
89 predictions
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
99 predictions
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
129 predictions

Match overview