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Paraguay · Primera Division · Division Profesional - Apertura

21 Mar 2026 23:30 UTC

LIBERTAD vs CERRO PORTENO

Final 2:3

Cerro Porteno won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jorge Morel — Cerro Porteno
  2. ⚽ Federico Carrizo — Libertad

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Lorenzo Melgarejo — Libertad
  2. ⚽ Fabricio Domínguez — Cerro Porteno
  3. ⚽ Cecilio Domínguez — Cerro Porteno

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Cerro Porteno
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 89 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 200 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 183 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 55% (Good)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 59 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
61 predictions
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
88 predictions
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
134 predictions
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
120 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
157 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
169 predictions

Match overview