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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

19 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

ASTON VILLA vs LILLE

Final 2:0

Aston Villa won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ John McGinn — Aston Villa
  2. ⚽ Leon Bailey — Aston Villa

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
49%
1X2
Lille
90-minute result: Aston Villa
Lucky hit
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
13%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 26 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 169 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 166 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 44% (Weak)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
126 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
74 predictions
Total 1.5 24% (Weak)
33 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
81 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
122 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
145 predictions

Match overview