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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

19 Mar 2026 17:45 UTC

LYON vs CELTA VIGO

Final 0:2

Celta Vigo won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Moussa Niakhaté — Lyon

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Javi Rueda — Celta Vigo
  2. ⚽ Ferran Jutglà — Celta Vigo
  3. 🟥 Nicolás Tagliafico — Lyon

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Celta Vigo
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
48%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 16% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 45 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 169 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 166 completed matches.

1X2 15% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 19 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 21% (Weak)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 32% (Weak)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 15% (Weak)
40 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
92 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
133 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
85 predictions
Total 3.5 23% (Weak)
44 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
145 predictions

Match overview