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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

12 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

GENK vs FREIBURG

Final 1:0

Genk won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Zakaria El Ouahdi — Genk

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
48%
1X2
Freiburg
90-minute result: Genk
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
As expected
48%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
59%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
82%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
25%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 22 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 160 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview