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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

12 Mar 2026 17:45 UTC

BOLOGNA vs ROMA

Final 1:1

Draw

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Federico Bernardeschi — Bologna
  2. ⚽ Lorenzo Pellegrini — Roma

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
48%
1X2
Roma
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Nice call
48%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
52%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
52%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
82%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
27%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 160 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview