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Scotland · FA Cup

07 Mar 2026 19:30 UTC

DUNFERMLINE vs ABERDEEN

Final 3:0

Dunfermline won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Matty Todd — Dunfermline
  2. ⚽ Olly Thomas — Dunfermline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Olly Thomas — Dunfermline

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
42%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Dunfermline
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
34%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
20%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 61 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 60 completed matches.

1X2 13% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 5 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 20% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 13% (Weak)
15 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
39 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
52 predictions
Total 2.5 32% (Weak)
22 predictions
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
38 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
54 predictions

Match overview