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Scotland · FA Cup

17 Jan 2026 15:00 UTC

KILMARNOCK vs DUNDEE FC

Final 1:2

Dundee FC won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Dominic Thompson — Kilmarnock

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ashley Hay — Dundee FC
  2. 🟥 Jack Thomson — Kilmarnock
  3. 🟥 Lewis Mayo — Kilmarnock
  4. ⚽ Drey Wright — Dundee FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
42%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Dundee FC
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
26%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 12 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 38 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 40 completed matches.

1X2 17% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 0% (Weak)
Total 2.5 0% (Weak)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 17% (Weak)
12 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
28 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
36 predictions
Total 2.5 31% (Weak)
13 predictions
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
25 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
36 predictions

Match overview