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Australia · A-League · A-League Men

11 Jan 2026 02:00 UTC

WELLINGTON PHOENIX vs ADELAIDE UNITED

Final 2:2

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ryan White — Adelaide United
  2. ⚽ Luke Duzel — Adelaide United

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Isaac Robert Hughes — Wellington Phoenix
  2. ⚽ Corban Piper — Wellington Phoenix

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
41%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Off target
61%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 19% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 26 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 74 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 63 completed matches.

1X2 20% (Weak)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 21 past matches

1X2 24% (Weak)
Both teams to score 86% (Strong)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 71% (Strong)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 20% (Weak)
15 predictions
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
27 predictions
Total 1.5 40% (Weak)
15 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Good)
31 predictions
Total 3.5 82% (Strong)
50 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
58 predictions

Match overview