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International · UEFA Women's EURO · Women's EURO Grp. D

09 Jul 2025 19:00 UTC

FRANCE vs WALES

Final 4:1

Top match France won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Clara Matéo — France
  2. ⚽ Jess Fishlock — Wales

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kadidiatou Diani — France
  2. ⚽ Amel Majri — France
  3. ⚽ Grace Geyoro — France

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Wales
90-minute result: France
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
As expected
48%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
29%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 75% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 4 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 7% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 14 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview