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Brazil · Brasileirão · Serie A

26 Jul 2026 21:30 UTC

FLAMENGO vs SAO PAULO

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Flamengo

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Léo Pereira · assist Jorginho — Flamengo
  2. ⚽ Jonathan Calleri · assist Luis Osorio — Sao Paulo

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Flamengo
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 55% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 74 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 430 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 509 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 97 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 36% (Weak)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
371 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
263 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
345 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
312 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
423 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
481 predictions

Match overview