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Belarus · Premier League

21 Jun 2026 15:00 UTC

BATE BORISOV vs ARSENAL DZERZHINSK

Final 2:3

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won Last goal: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Maksim Sakuta — BATE Borisov

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Mark Mokin — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
  2. ⚽ Maksim Sakuta — BATE Borisov
  3. ⚽ Mark Mokin — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
  4. ⚽ Valeri Gorbachik — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
39%
1X2
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
90-minute result: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 39% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 56 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 249 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 211 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 51 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 82% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
143 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
136 predictions
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
172 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
114 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
162 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
189 predictions

Match overview