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Paraguay · Primera Division · Division Profesional - Apertura

24 May 2026 20:00 UTC

NACIONAL vs LIBERTAD

Final 2:1

Nacional won Last goal: Nacional

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Matías Espinoza — Libertad
  2. ⚽ Orlando Gaona — Nacional
  3. ⚽ Josué Colmán (penalty) — Nacional

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Nacional
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 28% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 102 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 256 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 227 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 76 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
74 predictions
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
113 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
167 predictions
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
149 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
192 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
209 predictions

Match overview