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Ecuador · Serie A

16 May 2026 21:30 UTC

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA vs DELFIN

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: Universidad Catolica

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Eddy Mejía — Universidad Catolica
  2. ⚽ Kevin Ushiña — Delfin

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Erick Mendoza (penalty) — Delfin
  2. ⚽ José Fajardo — Universidad Catolica

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Favorite
51%
1X2
Universidad Catolica
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 52% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 42 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 294 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 253 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
172 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
119 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
177 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
147 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
209 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
238 predictions

Match overview