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Portugal · Liga Portugal 2

09 May 2026 14:30 UTC

PENAFIEL vs MARITIMO

Final 1:0

Penafiel won Last goal: Penafiel

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ze Leite — Penafiel

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Maritimo
90-minute result: Penafiel
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 39% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 64 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 280 completed matches.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 42% (Weak)
197 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
150 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
205 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
115 predictions
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
225 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
257 predictions

Match overview