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Paraguay · Primera Division · Division Profesional - Apertura

03 May 2026 12:30 UTC

RECOLETA vs CERRO PORTENO

Final 2:1

Recoleta won Last goal: Recoleta

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Allan Wlk — Recoleta
  2. ⚽ Alan Sonora (penalty) — Cerro Porteno
  3. 🟥 Rodrigo Gómez (straight red) — Cerro Porteno

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Allan Wlk — Recoleta

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Recoleta
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 98 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 242 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 215 completed matches.

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 64 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 34% (Weak)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 27% (Weak)
70 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
109 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
160 predictions
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
138 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
181 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
198 predictions

Match overview