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USA · US Open Cup

29 Apr 2026 02:00 UTC

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs MINNESOTA UNITED

Final 4:2

San Jose Earthquakes won Last goal: San Jose Earthquakes

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Beau Leroux — San Jose Earthquakes

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ronaldo Vieira (own goal) — Minnesota United
  2. ⚽ Tomás Chancalay — Minnesota United
  3. ⚽ Jack Skahan — San Jose Earthquakes
  4. ⚽ Beau Leroux — San Jose Earthquakes
  5. ⚽ Niko Tsakiris — San Jose Earthquakes

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Minnesota United
90-minute result: San Jose Earthquakes
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
As expected
48%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
29%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 54% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 72 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview