← Back to matches

England · National League Premier · National League Playoff

28 Apr 2026 18:45 UTC

SCUNTHORPE vs SOUTHEND

Final 1:0

Scunthorpe won Last goal: Scunthorpe

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Callum Roberts — Scunthorpe

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Harry Taylor (2nd yellow) — Southend

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Underdog
45%
1X2
Scunthorpe
90-minute result: Scunthorpe
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
5%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 49% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 138 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 518 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 542 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 90 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
403 predictions
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
320 predictions
Total 1.5 82% (Strong)
441 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
288 predictions
Total 3.5 34% (Weak)
160 predictions
Total 4.5 17% (Weak)
69 predictions

Match overview