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Brazil · Cup

21 Apr 2026 22:15 UTC

SAO PAULO vs JUVENTUDE

Final 1:0 Almanac Moment

Sao Paulo won Last goal: Sao Paulo

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Luciano — Sao Paulo

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Diogo Barbosa (straight red) — Juventude

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
Favorite
37%
1X2
Sao Paulo
90-minute result: Sao Paulo
Solid call
61%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
83%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
6%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 31 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 68 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 53 completed matches.

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 49% (Average)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 3 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 100% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 39% (Weak)
36 predictions
Both teams to score 74% (Strong)
19 predictions
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
9 predictions
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
27 predictions
Total 3.5 86% (Strong)
44 predictions
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
51 predictions

Match overview