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North & Central America · CONCACAF Champions Cup

09 Apr 2026 03:00 UTC

TOLUCA vs LA GALAXY

Final 4:2

Toluca won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Nicolás Castro — Toluca
  2. ⚽ Paulinho — Toluca

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Gabriel Pec — LA Galaxy
  2. ⚽ Paulinho — Toluca
  3. ⚽ Marco Reus — LA Galaxy
  4. ⚽ Paulinho — Toluca

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Toluca
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Nice call
48%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
52%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
29%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 41 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview