← Back to matches

Scotland · Premiership

04 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

MOTHERWELL vs FALKIRK

Final 2:3

Falkirk won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Barney Stewart — Falkirk
  2. ⚽ Elliot Watt — Motherwell
  3. ⚽ Ben Broggio — Falkirk

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Calvin Miller — Falkirk
  2. ⚽ Tawanda Maswanhise — Motherwell

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Falkirk
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 52 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 177 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 181 completed matches.

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 59 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 64% (Good)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 32% (Weak)
41 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
101 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
148 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
98 predictions
Total 3.5 39% (Weak)
51 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
162 predictions

Match overview