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Macedonia · Prva Liga

21 Mar 2026 13:30 UTC

ARSIMI vs FK VARDAR SKOPJE

Final 1:0

Arsimi won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Markel Goñi — Arsimi

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
41%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Arsimi
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
9%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 14% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 49 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 19% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 129 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 136 completed matches.

1X2 14% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 43 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 14% (Weak)
37 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
54 predictions
Total 1.5 18% (Weak)
28 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
60 predictions
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
101 predictions
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
118 predictions

Match overview